Stock Preacher

Last week Goldman Sachs Group Inc. settled its US$10B debt with the US taxpayer; now, what will they do about Warren Buffett? Last year, Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. invested US$5B in Goldman and acquired preferred shares and warrants to buy common stock, making Buffett’s presence large, because of his reputation for integrity and as one of the world’s savviest investors. So what will Buffett, now the 2nd wealthiest man in the United States do? “Basically not much,” said Vahan Janjigian, author of the book ‘Even Buffett Isn’t Perfect.’”He has a history of making fairly large investments in these kinds of companies and sitting back and letting the management team run the company.” Janjigian expects Buffett to sit tight as Berkshire collects US$500M of annual dividends on the preferred shares and earns paper profits on accompanying warrants to buy an additional US$5B of common stock at $115 per share for up to five years.

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The economic outlook is improving, but US stocks’ rally that began in March may run into an obstacle or two this week as investors will assess data on new and existing home sales that could point to whether the battered housing sector has bottomed, and they will keep an eye out for profit forecasts or warnings as Y 2009 Q-2 comes to a close. The US Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged after its two-day meeting ends Wednesday, but investors will check its statement for clues on the central bank’s economic outlook going forward.

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The conventional wisdom is that retail investors, and not institutions, have powered the market’s rally off the March 2009 lows. Not so, says Charles Biderman, CEO of TimTabs Investment Research. The firm tracks the flow of money in and out of mutual funds. Since the start of May, he says, “U.S. equity funds have taken in a modest US$7.1B” despite improved performance. Instead, retail investors are plowing money into bond funds. Moreover, Biderman says that individuals did capitulate in the heat of the crisis, having been burned twice in the last ten years. The retail investor is not in the market yet, but history tells us that they will be, Biderman expects them to come in to the market in 2010.

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The US$ hit a 5 month low against a basket of major currencies on Friday and the euro rose above US$1.41 for the first time this year as investors bought higher-yielding currencies and assets on hopes of a global economic recovery. Sterling approached US$1.62, almost an 8 month high, and capped its best month since 1985, while data showing the US economy shrank less than expected in the first quarter lifted global stocks and dulled the dollar’s safe-haven allure. Concern about the expanding amount of debt needed to fund a record US$1.8T US budget deficit added to dollar woes this week and put the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield en route to its biggest 2 month spike since 2004. Those worries amplified a report that South Korea’s National Pension Service intends to reduce exposure to US government bonds and equities in its 5 year portfolio. “There’s a visceral concern about the debasement of the US currency because the United States has a lot of debt to finance” and may have to print more money to do it, said Alan Ruskin, chief international strategist at RBS Greenwich Capital in Greenwich, Connecticut

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A key factor is preventing huge panic selling of shares and augurs for an equities rebound is the piecemeal nature of government attempts to rescue banks and the economy, according to analyst , Sitaraman Shankar. “We need to see an index falling 7 or 8 percent intraday in high volumes and then ending up nearly flat on the day as the buyers come back in,” said Philippe Gijsels, strategist at Fortis in Brussels. “What we’re getting instead is Chinese water torture, and no massive cleanout. Governments and central banks are tending to watch stock markets and giving investors small glimmers of hope, not enough to take markets higher, but enough to prevent a sell-off.” So for capitulation to happen, markets will have to be hit by a big, negative news event, and for the rebound to be sustainable, the overall environment would have to improve. “We need to see an event that would shock everybody, a big US bank failure, or a country in Europe going broke,” said Mark Bon, fund manager at Canada Life. Bon said positive factors that would need to be in place for any strong rebound included an improvement in consumer or business confidence indicators, some merger and acquisition activity, successful rights issues and a belief among investors that company profits had bottomed out. “We would have a sharp sell-off triggered by an event, and then a turnaround as people reversed their short positions and bought into a rally,” he said. The MSCI world index .MIWD00000PUS hit its lowest point since April 2003 last week. The index fell more than 43% last year, punctured by a credit market crisis with its origins in collapsed subprime U.S. mortgages, and is already down 16%this year. Between November 2008 and January 2009, there was a 27% rally driven by investor relief that governments were acting firmly to deal with the crisis. Since January 2009 global equities have slipped steadily as it became clear that the government moves were not enough to stave off a sharp recession in top economies. NO CAPITULATION = SMALLER FALLS, WEAKER RALLIES

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US investors are decamping foreign ventures and bringing their US$s home, entrusting them to the supposed bedrock safety of United States government bonds, and China continues to buy huge quantities of the USA’s debt. These actions are lifting the value of the US$, and providing the Obama administration with a crucial infusion of financing as it directs trillions of US$s toward rescuing banks and stimulating the economy, enabling the government to pay for these efforts without raising interest rates. The movement of this money back to the United States appears to be exacerbating the financial crisis world wide. A US$ invested by foreign central banks and investors in US government bonds is a US$ that is not available to Eastern European countries desperately seeking to refinance debt, also, it is a US$ that cannot reach Africa, where many countries are struggling with the loss of aid and foreign investment.

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