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China’s carbon emissions will start falling by 2050, its top climate change policymaker said, and the 1st time the world’s largest emitter has given such a time-frame. Whether China will agree to some kind of cap on its emissions is a critical question ahead of global climate change talks in December in Copenhagen. Beijing argues, as do most developing countries, that developed nations should take responsibility for cutting emissions first, since global warming originated with their industrialization. China and India have been resisting pressure from developed nations to agree to a target of reducing emissions by an overall average of 50% by 2050. Beijing’s view is this; that as China still needs to grow its economy to help its people escape poverty, it is too early to discuss emissions caps. The Chinese Academy of Sciences has said that with major technological support from developed nations, China could see its emissions peak between 2030 and 2040. Other Chinese experts say carbon output will keep rising until 2050 unless radical controls are adopted. No radical programs are under way at this time.

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Gold steadied above US$950oz yesterday but was off the previous day’s 6-½ week high as caution returned after prices neared US$960. Gold has mostly moved in a range of US$945/960 oz for the past week with strong technical resistance towards the US$960 oz level, which was last touched on June 11.

Gains have also been capped by weak physical demand. High prices, combined with the fact that it is a slow season for gold demand, have forced jewelers in India, the world’s largest consumer of the metal, to step back to the sidelines. Gold XAU was US$955.20 oz at 0619 GMT, up 0.3% from the notional close in New York of US$952.65. It rose to a 6-1/2-week high of US$958.70 on Monday. U.S. gold futures for August delivery GCQ9 were $955.50 an ounce, up 0.2%

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Crude Oil rose to a six-month high above US$66 per barrel on Friday, marking its largest monthly percentage gain in more than a decade, after U.S., Japanese and Indian data suggested the economic downturn may be easing. Crude Oil prices jumped around 30 percent this month, the largest monthly rise since March 1999, buoyed by expectations of a global economic recovery later this year, which helped push stock markets higher. US Crude Oil for July delivery settled up US$1.23 at US$66.31, its highest settlement since November 4, after earlier hitting US$66.47, the highest intraday trade since November 5.London Brent crude settled up US$1.13 at US$65.52, its highest settle since November 4. The US$ hit a five-month low against a basket of other currencies. A weak US$ makes Crude Oil cheaper for holders of other currencies and tends to support prices

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At the end of Obama’s press conference following the Group of 20 Summit last Thursday, a large crowd of journalists did something journalists never do: they gave a politician a standing ovation.

In a week that began with a flurry of meetings between the US president and his counterparts from China, Russia, India, Saudi Arabia, Britain and others, and ends with Saturday’s NATO summit, the media’s uncharacteristic behavior might easily be forgotten. However, it will likely linger because it matched a sincere response over and above the supplication shown towards any occupant of the White House by the leaders of the G-20 countries.

The same cerebral and low-key approach used by President Obama in dealings with fellow leaders came out in often lengthy, but nuanced, answers to questions. “He actually answered the questions he was asked,” says one startled Asian reporter. President Obama he is being accorded high ratings from almost every quarter barring his conservative critics in the USA. In part, this comes because of the contrast Mr Obama strikes with the widely derided George W. Bush. Partly it has been prompted by the celebrity cult the new leader has generated in the US. But most of all, it is about Mr Obama’s unusual approach to foreigners. “I have come to listen, not to lecture,” he said several times this week.

Much of the time he appeared to mean it. The least expected endorsement came from Russia’s president Medvedev, who until he met President Obama had developed a taste for rubbing Americans the wrong way. But last Wednesday the Russian president unexpectedly invited him to visit this July, observing that Moscow’s warm weather that month would reflect the new warmth in US-Russian relations, Mr Medvedev said: “After this meeting, I am far more optimistic about the successful development of our relations and would like to thank President Obama for this opportunity.” Mark-to-Market Rule Gives More Clarity

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Investors are buying record amounts of Gold bars and coins, shunning risky assets for the relative safety of bullion amid renewed fears about the health of the global financial system. The US Mint sold 92,000 ozs of its popular American Eagle coin in January, almost four times that which it sold a year ago and more than it shipped during the whole of the first half of 2007. Other countries’ mints have also reported strong sales. “Large purchases of coins are perhaps the ultimate sign of safe-haven gold buying,” said John Reade, a precious metals strategist at UBS.

Inflows into Gold-backed exchange traded funds also surged in January 2009, pushing their bullion holdings to an all-time high of 1,317 tonnes. Last month’s flows of 105 tonnes were above September’s previous record of 104 tonnes, and absorbed about half the world’s Gold mine output for January, said Barclays Capital. “We estimate that investment demand [into Gold] could double in 2009 compared to 2007,” said Mr. Reade. “Purchases of physical Gold have jumped over the past six months as investors’ fears about the current financial crisis … have intensified.” The move into Gold is being driven by the very rich, with bankers saying that some clients are hoarding Gold in their vaults. UBS and Goldman Sachs said last week that investor hoarding would drive prices back above US $1,000 oz.

Last Monday Gold was trading at US$892 oz. and closed last Friday at US$942.20 + US$ 50.20 (5.6%) on the week. Traders and analysts said jewelry demand, historically the backbone of gold consumption, had collapsed under the weight of the high prices. Sharp falls in demand in the key markets of India, Turkey and the Middle East have capped the potential of any price rally. But the lack of jewelers demand has not discouraged investors. Jonathan Spall, director of commodities at Barclays Capital in London, said: “We have seen more new enquiries about investing in gold so far this year than during the whole 2008.”

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Global Gold and Silver trading posted record activity since the start of the credit crisis, according to the Bullion Markets 2009 report published in London last week by the International Financial Services London (IFSL). Gold turnover increased 58% in 2008 to a record US$ 20.2 T. Silver trading increased 39% during the year to a record US$2.6T. The traditional “safe-haven” appeal of the precious metals has attracted many investors to this asset and the growth in turnover was partly due to an increase in prices of precious metals during the year with Gold posting an all time high in March of US$1,011 oz. According to the report, the OTC market accounted for nearly 75% of Gold trading and 56% of silver trading. Most of this activity was transacted through the LBMA (London Bullion Market Association).

Daily reported net trading in Gold on the LBMA averaged US$20B in the first 11 months of 2008, up 45%t on the same period of 2007. Daily trading in silver on the LBMA increased 32% to US$2B. Futures and options trading of Gold on exchanges increased more than 80% in 2008 to a record US$5.1T, according to the report. Trading of silver increased 60% to a record US$1.2T. Exchange traded Gold and silver funds have been the strongest source of growth in demand since their introduction in 2003. Comex in New York, MCX in India and Tocom in Tokyo account for most of the exchange traded activity.

Investors who know their history are moving into Gold. They know that in the last few years of the 1970s, the Gold mining sector featured quadruple digit share price gains as Gold shot North. With the same economic conditions prevailing now, it’s not unlikely to see the same happening once again.

Bottom line: US$800 oz Gold may turn into $1,300 oz Gold in the foreseeable future. Scarce, precious metals like Gold have become sought after investments following the huge sell off in equities. Many Gold Bugs and value analysts are predicting a major Bull Charge North in Gold, and that is has already begun.

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