The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report on the US Major Market Indices + ™

January 26, 2009

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This is what happened last week…

Last Tuesday began what the world community views as a major event in US history, the inauguration of Barack H. Obama as its 44th President and its 1st Black American President.
Some of President Obama’s executive orders on his 1st day in office:

1. A freeze on salaries for White House staff earning $100,000 or more, about 100 people in all.

2. New Freedom of Information Act rules, making it harder to keep the workings of government secret.

3. Tighter ethics rules governing when administration officials can work on issues on which they previously lobbied governmental agencies, and banning them from lobbying the Obama administration after leaving government service.

The week in the markets, however, continued to be bathed in the glow of uncertainty within the financial sector and coupled with Qs about the timing of the economic recovery.
Couple that with headlines announcing that China’s Y 2008 Q 4 GDP contracted from 9% to 6.8%, the UK reporting a GDP decline of 1.5%, the largest since 1980, US housing starts fell to their lowest level on record, and initial jobless claims returned to Christmas levels, matching the 26 yr. high of 589,000 set in December 2008.
Though Microsoft disappointed, IBM and AAPL rang the bell with GOOG beating too, and coming in better than expected.
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Popularity: 25% [?]

Focus on Hollywood

January 25, 2009

; Hollywood is sitting on a storytelling ; not likely.

A host of film projects in the indie and studio worlds are gaining momentum as the biggest economic crisis in decades boils and bubbles the stories of economic woe are in .

“I wouldn’t say it’s a feeding frenzy just yet,” one agent said. “But some people I’ve talked to have let it be known that, if you do have these ideas, they will rise to the top of the pile.”

Unlike the television world, where plot elements can go from conception to the screen in the film world takes much longer to see stories through, but that hasn’t stopped companies from pushing forward.

The word is that has restarted long-rumored talk of a “Wall Street” sequel, more than two decades after the era-defining original, though Oliver Stone’s picture was set in and released into a world still in a bubble of economic prosperity. The studio has hired Allan Loeb to write a new draft and sees the picture as a social comment of sorts: entering a world too cutthroat even for him.

“Australia” director Baz Luhrmann, meanwhile, is moving ahead with a “Gatsby” story he feels will be a parable of our times, and Participant Prods., always up for a socially relevant tale, is developing “Minimum Wage,” about a corrupt executive sentenced to live on the low wages of the people his greed exploited.

Many of the projects are in partly as an insurance policy; when a story is so culturally dominant, executives feel a related project or two on the slate does not hurt, even if they do not intend to green-light it anytime soon.

We all are aware that the studios’ records for developing projects with a timely theme are mixed. While crises can give rise to great works, think “All the President’s Men” and Watergate, those examples are rare, and happen after the public has had several years to digest the events.

Experts say that while a zeitgeist can affect viewing habits, Hollywood can be too literal about trying to capitalize on it. “One of the most popular genres during the Depression was the gangster movie because people felt powerless and wanted a solution outside the system,” Syracuse University’s Robert Thompson said. “Good art packages and processes; it doesn’t copy, which is why it’s hard to develop stories about current events.”

Some producers and filmmakers are hoping that, in the right context, these tales can work.

“If you wanted to show a mirror to people that says ‘You’ve been drunk on money,’ they’re not going to want to see it,” said Luhrmann, who says he wants to move quickly on “Gatsby.” “But if you reflected it on another time, I think they’d be willing to.”

Studio Suits are saying that while they realize that the American public might not want to be reminded of troubled times as they’re overwhelmed by them, they also might want the onscreen catharsis of seeing executives brought low.

There may be a financial reason some of these projects could get fast-tracked: Some of the potential financiers are more interested in these stories because these are the stories close to their heart.

Still, observers and savvy execs like Michael Selsman, CEO of Archer Entertainment, (www.archeremc.com) says that any project banking on audiences abandoning their usual tastes are misguided, and that aspirational entertainment has a role to play even in the toughest times. Nobody will be fascinated with shows that showcase the trials and tribulations of the foreclosed homeowner,” he said.’

Popularity: 6% [?]

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