THE TRAUMATIZED WESTERN FINANCIAL INDUSTRY

March 30, 2009

Since the World’s markets seized up on September 8, 2009 many corporations are either cutting costs, waiting for government bailout money, or preparing for bankruptcy, as banks are reluctant to lend to all but the most worthy and then at unconventionally high interest rates.

In the center of the storm lies the , and financial industry where it all started.
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation said last week that the nation’s banks and thrifts lost $32.1B in the Q-4 Y 2008, the first quarterly deficit in 18 yrs, compared with the $575MM profit in Q-4 Y 2007. The industry’s net income for Y 2008 plunged from $16.1B to $10.2 B for the period.

In the eighteen federally insured banks have failed so far this year. Last year the number was 25, more than the total number of the previous five years, and up from only three in 2007.
Shares of Citigroup Inc., once the most powerful U.S. bank, have fallen below 1 dollar this month. Pummeled by the , the group has lost more than 98 % of its value from its peak in October 2007, and is down more than 95 % from a year ago.

The (), covered almost daily in www..com’s Stock Talk, reported this month that it lost $ 61.7B in Q-4 Y 2009, the largest corporate loss in history. has benefited since from more than $170B in federal rescue funds with more likely needed and to come.

HSBC Holdings PLC, the largest bank in Europe, early this month reported a 70% drop in its Y 2008 profit and said it would cut 6,100 jobs as it closes its consumer loan business in the United States. It also announced that it would cut its dividend and not pay bonuses to top executives.

In the , the DJIA sank below 6,800 on March 3, its lowest close since May 1997, losing more than 50% from its highest level in October 2007. Since then the S&P 500 has staged a 19.8% rally off of its lows in the same frame.

On March 23 when the markets were surprised by the government’s latest plan on clearing bad bank and a larger-than-expected rise in existing home sales, the three main all surged more than 6.5% on the day.

Some Economists suggest that has yet to bottom out, and the real continues to slip as the global economic situation deteriorates.

Therefore, stimulus spending, market confidence, financial regulation and free trade will be key issues at the G20 summit of the World’s leading developing and developed economies next week in .

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The US$64,000 Question the US$ vs. the Swiss Franc.

January 31, 2009

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Every major country in the world is increasing their , and all analysts expect inflation and a lot of it. So the US$64,000 Question is this; will there be any currency that comes out of this crisis to be considered the new base currency, like the US$ is now? The Big A is that right now nobody knows because there is no totally obvious currency, and that is why the US$ is sill doing well although it is in a long term down trend. This is happening in part because interest rates in the EU remain higher than in the USA, and higher interest rates attract investment capital, which first has to be converted to the higher interest currency, and that bids up its value vs. the dollar. Europe represents an economy about the size of the USA, so there may be some safety there. One can argue for the Swiss Franc, but you know the Swiss banks have had some problems too. So there is no clear picture emerging yet.

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