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In China the Government owns the Banks; the bankers do not own the Government. China’s stimulus plan is working better than in the US and the UK because the government is using the banks for public ends, rather than allowing the banks to use the government for private ends. In the USA, the banks are the most powerful lobby on Capitol Hill; they own the Government.

The USA is spending trillions of greenbacks to bail out its banking system, leaving its economy to languish, as China, now called a “miracle economy,” decoupled from the rest of the world, is maintaining a phenomenal 8% annual growth rate. That, by the way, is being questioned by lots of Pols, commentators, economists and other talking heads, as they ask how that growth is possible, when other countries relying heavily on exports have suffered major downturns and remain in the doldrums. Read more

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Leading indicators now suggest that the global recession is coming to an end and the world economy is on the road to a policy-induced recovery. “The OECD’s composite leading indicators signal that the worst is over,” Tu Packard said in the global outlook report released Friday by Moody’s Economy.com, the research unit of Moody’s Corporation, which is independent of Moody’s Investors Service. The OECD refers to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Packard said he saw significant improvement in the world economic map in July, as compared with that in January. Ample liquidity provided by central banks has helped stabilize the financial markets and credit conditions and bank liquidity has been improving, he said. In Asia, China and India are again picking up growth momentum and are the first to recover from the impacts of the global financial turmoil and economic slowdown. Indonesia and Bangladesh are still members of the expanding growth club. Turkey and South Korea, which enjoyed broad-based growth in the second quarter, are projected to have an early recovery. South Korea and other industrialized Asian economies are also benefiting from a strong recovery in the electronics industry. But Japan remains in the slowdown phase, still troubled with high unemployment and massive overcapacity in manufacturing. Read more

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Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase Co. have emerged two bellwethers of the US finance sector in the post-bailout Wall Street, leading the surge of optimism with their strong profits in the Y 2009 Q-2. Six major US banks have reported their second-quarter profits in the past two weeks, vastly beating analyst predictions. The business of Goldman has little to do with common consumers, its quarterly earnings of more than US$3.4B posted were buoyed by record results in its trading and underwriting business. According to the quarterly report, the Wall Street giant generated a record US$6.8B in revenue from fixed income, currency and commodities trading during the quarter. Revenue from equity underwriting jumped to US$736M form UD$ 48M in the first quarter compared with US$616M last year. JP Morgan Chase, the largest US bank by market value, posted a US$2.72B earnings, and made its profits mainly from investment-banking services including bond and equity trading, and underwriting debt to help companies issue shares and bonds, not commercial loans and consumption credit.

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US President Barack Obama warned credit-card issuers they will face new regulations and scrutiny to keep consumers from being hit by “unfair” rate increases and abusive fees and penalties. Obama said he told 13 executives from the industry, including representatives from Charlotte, North Carolina-based Bank of America Corp. and New York-based American Express Co. that while credit cards are an important source of finance for families and small businesses, consumers too often must negotiate confusing terms that end up costing them more money than they expected. “The days of any time, any reason rate hikes and late fee traps have to end,” Obama said after meeting with the executives yesterday at the White House. “No more fine print, no more confusing terms and conditions.” Card issuers are under fire for policies that impose large late fees and boost interest rates on delinquent customers amid higher unemployment and a recession. The Federal Reserve already has issued new rules, due to take effect in 2010. Lawmakers in the US House and Senate also are considering legislation to provide more consumer protections. American Bankers Association President Ed Yingling, who was among those at the meeting, said afterward that Obama was “very clear” about his desire to make disclosures easier to understand and about the practices he wants ended.

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Since the World’s credit markets seized up on September 8, 2009 many corporations are either cutting costs, waiting for government bailout money, or preparing for bankruptcy, as banks are reluctant to lend to all but the most credit worthy and then at unconventionally high interest rates.

In the center of the storm lies the US, UK and EU financial industry where it all started.
The US Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation said last week that the nation’s banks and thrifts lost US$32.1B in the Q-4 Y 2008, the first quarterly deficit in 18 yrs, compared with the US$575MM profit in Q-4 Y 2007. The industry’s net income for Y 2008 plunged from US$16.1B to US$10.2 B for the period.

In the US eighteen federally insured banks have failed so far this year. Last year the number was 25, more than the total number of the previous five years, and up from only three in 2007.
Shares of Citigroup Inc., once the most powerful U.S. bank, have fallen below 1 dollar this month. Pummeled by the financial crisis, the group has lost more than 98 % of its value from its peak in October 2007, and is down more than 95 % from a year ago.

The American International Group (AIG), covered almost daily in www.stockpreacher.com’s Stock Talk, reported this month that it lost US$ 61.7B in Q-4 Y 2009, the largest corporate loss in history. AIG has benefited since from more than US$170B in federal rescue funds with more likely needed and to come.

HSBC Holdings PLC, the largest bank in Europe, early this month reported a 70% drop in its Y 2008 profit and said it would cut 6,100 jobs as it closes its consumer loan business in the United States. It also announced that it would cut its dividend and not pay bonuses to top executives.

In the US, the DJIA sank below 6,800 on March 3, its lowest close since May 1997, losing more than 50% from its highest level in October 2007. Since then the S&P 500 has staged a 19.8% rally off of its lows in the same frame.

On March 23 when the markets were surprised by the US government’s latest plan on clearing bad bank assets and a larger-than-expected rise in existing home sales, the three main indexes all surged more than 6.5% on the day.

Some Economists suggest that financial crisis has yet to bottom out, and the real economy continues to slip as the global economic situation deteriorates.

Therefore, stimulus spending, market confidence, financial regulation and free trade will be key issues at the G20 summit of the World’s leading developing and developed economies next week in London.

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Warren Buffett conceded that his holding company, Berkshire Hathaway, turned in its worst performance on record as the financial crisis drew the world’s economy into a deepening recession, and gave investors little reason to believe a turnaround is imminent.

In his annual letter to Berkshire shareholders, Mr. Buffett recounted how frozen credit markets dovetailed with tumbling home and stock prices to imperil many of the world’s biggest banks and produce “a paralyzing fear that engulfed the country.” “By yearend,” he wrote, “investors of all stripes were bloodied and confused, much as if they were small birds that had strayed into a badminton game.”The billionaire also urged his legions of followers to remember that the stock market usually rises; the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has produced annual increases in 75% of the past 44 years, and may do so again even if the downturn persists. “We’re certain, for example, that the economy will be in shambles throughout Y 2009, and, for that matter, probably well beyond.

But that conclusion does not tell us whether the stock market will rise or fall,” he wrote. Regardless, Mr. Buffett wrote, Berkshire will stick with a strategy that has produced an annual compounded growth in book value of 20.3%: maintaining its “Gibraltar-like” financial strength, improving the competitive position of its existing businesses and making new acquisitions that bolster earnings.

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