Stock Preacher

Savvy stock market strategists are seeing the up arrows as the Big Q on the Street is: how much further the Bull can Charge before it stalls and lays down?.
Some traders believe a pullback has got to come and that this week is as good as any for that to happen, because of the low trade volume of trading, but others, many others several strategists say in notes they see stocks moving higher warning the naysayers could be proven wrong, and that this could be the beginning of a new Bull Market and a above average one at that..
Goldman Sachs strategists said they see progress on a number of economic fronts and are now boosting their exposure to cyclical stocks. Laszlo Birinyi says, if you look at history, it looks like the market’s still moving higher.
Citigroup’s Levkovich, chief U.S. equities strategist, said the investment community is “almost shocked” by the near 30 percent rise in the S&P 500 since early March, and that the case is building for a second half of Y 2009 recovery, that many investors are ignoring the fundamentals and following only the technicals in here.

Since early March, financials have risen 74%; cyclical consumer discretionary are + 46%; industrials gained 44%, and materials are up 41%, as the defensive sectors are under-performing. The move higher in the stock market is boosting US consumer confidence. For that reason, the market is seeing much better that average movement higher. A Key factor is that there are many of investors who missed the moves and are sitting with large cash hordes, about US$9.2Trillion.

Laszlo Biriniy says the market’s 53-day gain and 10 percent move above the 50-day moving average are second only to the market’s performance in 1933. He also says in a note that the net advances over the past 10 days are the third strongest in market history, and he makes a case for even more gains.
Brown Brothers Harriman’s Brian Rauscher, a long-time Bear turned Bullish in early March. He was concerned last month that the market could be showing signs of moving too far, too fast. But last Friday when asked does he think the market will go higher. He answered: “May have take a deep breath to get through 900 (a day or so), but this market is moving higher.”

Popularity: 4% [?]

Sumner Redstone, the Chairman of CBS Corp, said last Wednesday that he believes that the US stock market is in the early stages of a new Bull Market. The octogenarian media mogul also said he has no plans to step down anytime soon or give up his controlling positions in CBS or Viacom. ”The one thing I would never do is lose control of CBS and Viacom,” he said, adding, “I have no intention of retiring or dying. I could live and work forever,” he said, attributing his robust health to antioxidants, exercise and a shot of Vodka a day.

Popularity: 3% [?]

Gold is a role model, a leader if you will last week it rose hitting a 6 month high. In its role as a leader, some analysts are saying that Gold is telling us that the new team will succeed in turning this recession around, and inflation will eventually follow, which will push Gold’s Bull Market to higher levels in 2009 and into the years ahead. Gold is in a class by itself, as it ended 2008 with a gain and it continued to rise to a six-month high recently in spite of the rising US$. Gold is a barometer for the world’s financial stability, it is considered real money. Cash is king in the current cash strapped environment, and Gold is the ultimate cash vehicle becoming a alternative to holding cash and it’s showing the growing mistrust in the US$. Investors feel safe holding Gold because it does have real value and it is widely believed that with the US economy contracting at the fastest pace in 27 yrs (the most in 4Q since 1982) uncertainty will continue keeping Gold strong. Technically Gold’s ongoing bull market turns 8 yrs old this month. The 8 yr mark has been a consistent low time for Gold going back to the late 1960s when Gold began trading in the free market. Important lows vary from 7 years to 8 ½ years following the previous low, with the average being eight years. This recurring pattern indicates that the low could have been last November’s low, three months shy of 8 yrs. The long side would be a low this summer. The point is that Gold is near or at an important low time. This means that buyers will be buying on weakness (dips) this year speculating that it is reaching for a record high.

Popularity: 9% [?]

World Gold demand in the retail and in the investment sector is now all-time highs, however estimates suggest that the world will only produce 76.8MM troy ozs during 2008 marking a 9% decline in world Gold production since 2001 as the Bull Market in Gold is growing and in a up-trend. The market has already pushed gold prices over 300% higher since 2001, and now with the world’s demand for Gold beginning to significantly outpace supplies, higher prices are predicted by analysts. During Q3 there was a 10.5MM oz deficit (US$8.5B) in world’s supply and demand of gold. Global Gold demand increased over 50% since Q2 while supplies dropped 64% year-on-year.

Popularity: 3% [?]

This is not a investor market, it is a bear market, bull markets do not have this kind of volatility. This is a day trader scenario, as the proposed action by “O” and the Clinton Gang (they will surely clash with one another) has investors on edge, and they are selling practically everything, no matter what, the good and bad companies, today they bought on technical issues.

The American voter will be very angry when he comes out of the ether with fewer jobs, hyper inflation, devalued money, and home sweet home not so sweet. Or Worse Stagflation or Deflation. There will be trouble here in the USA, the UK, the EU as the developing economies lead the recovery.

As we also know, the global economic slowdown is dragging down economies and stock markets worldwide. And Chinese stocks have taken some big hits as investors question the sustainability of China’s economic growth.

In fact, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rallied dramatically starting on October 28 through November 10, and gained 32% during this up move. But in the past 10 days, the Hang Seng index has retraced these steps and lost nearly 17%.

Now, there’s no doubt that China will feel the repercussions of the global economic slowdown. But there is little doubt in my mind that China will still be the fastest growing major economy next year, as it prepares for the huge Shanghai world exhibition (bigger than the Olympics by at least half). They will have a party leading the world in growth.

I do believe that things are very fragile at best now. Gun and ammo sales are escalating here in the US. The American conservatives are angry, Red is now Fire Red not Cool Blue.
Here is my position on O and the O Administration:

In a couple of months the simple campaign talk will meet head on realities of governing, and President Obama will confront the truth about his foreign policy goals + perhaps some unexpected crises too.

1) America’s financial crisis will severely limit his power, and strain the overseas alliances he says he want to nurture. We know that he popular abroad, but as President he must defend U.S. interests and that will crash head on with those of other nations.
Think about the European Union and China. Obama needs Europe’s backing to stabilize Afghanistan, combat terrorism and impede the spread of nuclear weapons, and he needs firmer ties with China to shore up U.S. interests in volatile South Asia and slow Global Warming, but he risks alienating both powers if his administration erects trade barriers to protect American jobs, an imperative he stressed in the campaign. See what I mean so far Brother.

2) Even with wide international support, it may be impossible for Obama to win the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, prevent Iran from building a nuclear weapon, broker peace between Arabs and Israelis or stabilize African countries beset by civil strife.

Again, the realities are much, much more complex than Obama presented as a candidate.

Gold and Crude Oil on the Week.

Gold investors sought havens amid sharp falls in global equity markets sendling Gold up 6.9% on Friday, to trade at $796.35 oz, its highest level since October 21, bringing its gains on the week to 7.5%
Crude Oil Nymex January West Texas Intermediate managed to finish 51 cents higher at $49.93 a barrel yesterday, but was still down 12.5 per cent on the week. ICE January Brent rose $1.11 to $49.19 yesterday, but was also down 14.6% on the week.

Popularity: 2% [?]

Let’s have a look at the Golden name in the world’s Gold mining sector: Barrick Gold Corporation (ABX) from a Technical POV (point of view).

The overall analysis after Fridays (11-07-08) market action is Bearish overall, in the near term it is Neutral, mid-term Neutral, and long term Very Bearish, this can change on any strong upside action with good volume.

Barrick closed up 3.17 pts at 25.43 volume approaching 15MM/shrs on the day (Nov. 04, 2008)

There is a Gap Open Up on October 29, 2008 at (20.39) and 3 Open Gaps Down on the chart dating back to August 5, 2008 (39.50) thru October 2, 2008 (36.00), the near term resistance is the 50 day moving average at 29.10.

This is Barrick Gold Corporation: In the world of mining, Barrick Gold is the Gold Standard. The company became the world’s One # One Gold producer, ahead of Newmont Mining and AngloGold Ashanti, after acquiring Placer Dome in 2006. Barrick puts out 8MM ozs of Gold annually and has 125MM ozs in proven and probable reserves. About ½ of its production comes from the North American operations, which include Goldstrike, located in Nevada’s Carlin Trend Gold producing region. Outside of North America Barrick has active projects in Tanzania, Peru, and Australia. On the Placer Dome acquisition came huge copper mining operations that brought Barrick more than 6B Lbs of Copper reserves.

Barrick Gold Corp (ABX)
Expected next earnings release:
Announcement date: 2/19/2009 - Before Market
Earnings Quarter: Q4
Announcement Status: Unconfirmed
Expected next dividend:
Dividend Announcement Date: 10/29/2008
Dividend Record Date: 11/28/2008
Dividend Pay Date: 12/15/2008
Dividend Amount: 0.20

Note: In the metals mining sector demand is driven by industrial demand and economic growth, both domestic and foreign. A company’s profitability depends on volume and efficient operations. Large companies like Barrick can afford to discover and develop new deposits and increase reserves. Small companies typically own just one mine, limit exploration to that one property, and operate it as efficiently as possible. Gold mining today is highly automated; annual revenue per employee is approx. US$30 The overall analysis after yesterday’s market action is Bearish overall, in the near term it is Neutral, mid-term Bearish and long term Bearish, this can change on any strong upside action with good volume.

Gold and Politics
On August 15, 1971, US President, Richard Nixon unilaterally canceled the Bretton Woods system and stopped the direct convertibility of the United States dollar to gold. As a result, the U.S. dollar was decoupled from gold, and gold prices could fluctuate like any other commodity.
The data is limited when comparing the performance of Gold prices as they relate to the political affiliation of the President of the United States. There are some striking similarities between the performance of Gold prices during the great Gold bull market of the 1970s and today’s Gold bull market and how the Presidential political affiliation was and is tilted.

Democrat Barack Obama has been elected to become the 44th President of the United States of America, and some gold bugs are extremely happy because the biggest Gold bull market in modern history peaked during a political landscape that is similar to what we are seeing today.

Popularity: 1% [?]