Stock Preacher

Warren Buffett conceded that his holding company, Berkshire Hathaway, turned in its worst performance on record as the financial crisis drew the world’s economy into a deepening recession, and gave investors little reason to believe a turnaround is imminent.

In his annual letter to Berkshire shareholders, Mr. Buffett recounted how frozen credit markets dovetailed with tumbling home and stock prices to imperil many of the world’s biggest banks and produce “a paralyzing fear that engulfed the country.” “By yearend,” he wrote, “investors of all stripes were bloodied and confused, much as if they were small birds that had strayed into a badminton game.”The billionaire also urged his legions of followers to remember that the stock market usually rises; the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has produced annual increases in 75% of the past 44 years, and may do so again even if the downturn persists. “We’re certain, for example, that the economy will be in shambles throughout Y 2009, and, for that matter, probably well beyond.

But that conclusion does not tell us whether the stock market will rise or fall,” he wrote. Regardless, Mr. Buffett wrote, Berkshire will stick with a strategy that has produced an annual compounded growth in book value of 20.3%: maintaining its “Gibraltar-like” financial strength, improving the competitive position of its existing businesses and making new acquisitions that bolster earnings.

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This is what happened last week…

Last Friday’s gave us a Jobs Report that is somewhat flawed and a number of other stories, like the beginning of the lame earnings reports that most of us have come to expect.
Crude Oil ended the week at 40.45 bbl -1.25, the US$ rallied some, and a Fed rep noted that the recession would likely extend past Q-2. People started to put some money back to work in mutual funds and corporate bonds

I had a discussion with some of my pals last week about the how things were in the US back in 1980, and although this is bad, it was bad then too. But opportunities abounded then and do once again now in our collective opinions. So if we are back to the early 1980’s then we are back in the land of huge investment opportunity.

On page 2, there is a Q & A between Mike (he asked the Q’s) and me. It bought the “glass is half full” POV once again to a clear prospective. 20-odd years ago we had come out of a decade of being in “irons” and had big hopes for a new era, the Reagan Era; now we are in a similar boat but not alone on the sea; interest rates are at record lows in the West and we have big hopes for another new era, the Obama Era.

Friend, major advancements and fortunes came out of the Reagan Era and expect that to happen again, the odds favor it.

The collective thinking of the central bankers has turned to stimulus, and stimulus it will be like never before in history. No one knows what will be the result, but hopes are running high that the bleeding will stop, the wounds will heal, scar tissue will form and we and the rest of the world will forge ahead into economic bliss.

We all know that the Chinese word for crisis is weiji and that means danger/opportunity. You do not need to be Chinese to understand what that means in the investment world.

The market indices are in good shape on last week’s pullback; the financials got hammered some but the leaders held support levels on the test lower during the day on low volume as they made higher lows as the Bears weaken. However, today whoever is left will be back to work in Wall Street, Bulls and Bears alike, and this is a week of high anticipation as we run up to the Inauguration on January 20.

There is a Wall Street adage that I learned from Gene Morgan, “Stocks climb a Wall of Worry”. And we all know that most folks are worried.

Stay tuned…

Below is the short Interview that my pal Mike did with me last week on investing in the Stock Market as I reminisced, good thing he recorded it and transcribed it for us… Read more

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