Stock rally signals possible turn

March 16, 2009

around the Globe recovered sharply last week, bouncing in what may mark a bottom, or represent a Bear Market that will fade in short order. Bear Market Rallies are usually short and explosive in nature as they occur in the wake of excessive selling. This month, the S&P 500 closed at its lowest level since September 1996, at 676.52 pts. That low represented a decline of nearly 60 % from the ’s record high in October 2007. Many investors expected some type of bounce, with short sellers seen buying back to close out their profitable trades. The S&P has subsequently bounced nearly 12% from its low, trimming its loss for the year to around 16 %. , chief officer at Harris Private Bank, says: “At this stage, we’re snapping back from a heavily oversold situation. Pessimism was so extreme.”

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Hot Topic: Small investors shun big brokers to do it themselves

January 27, 2009

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The public has lost confidence in traditional brokers whose fees and commissions became all the more glaring during the Bear Market of 2008. The Lehman bankruptcy last September shook up the concept of entrusting others to be fiduciaries on your behalf and giving you advice.

Today, are choosing alternatives to Wall Street banks that charge for financial advice and executing trades, sometimes with opaque pricing on fees and commissions. Many former wire house bankers have left their Wall Street jobs since the turbulence of last fall and have taken clients with them, creating investment advisory boutiques that direct new trades to online and discount brokers such as Charles Schwab, TD Ameritrade, E*Trade and the privately held Scottrade. There is now a trend toward self-directed investing that has come from the loss of trust in Wall Street. Retail are finding their information from many sources and making the trades themselves, eliminating fears about edgy and iffy banks or potential swindlers such as Bernard Madoff, who is accused of engineering a US$50B Ponzi scheme. Charles Schwab, the largest US online brokerage has attracted US$9.2B of net new assets in December alone.

Popularity: 6% [?]

Some thoughts on last weeks markets + Gold and Crude Oil

November 23, 2008

This is not a investor market, it is a bear market, bull markets do not have this kind of volatility. This is a day trader scenario, as the proposed action by “O” and the Clinton Gang (they will surely clash with one another) has on edge, and they are selling practically everything, no matter what, the good and bad companies, today they bought on technical issues.

The American voter will be very angry when he comes out of the ether with fewer jobs, hyper inflation, devalued money, and home sweet home not so sweet. Or Worse Stagflation or Deflation. There will be trouble here in the USA, the UK, the EU as the developing economies lead the recovery.

As we also know, the global economic slowdown is dragging down economies and stock markets worldwide. And Chinese have taken some big hits as question the sustainability of China’s economic growth.

In fact, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rallied dramatically starting on October 28 through November 10, and gained 32% during this up move. But in the past 10 days, the Hang Seng index has retraced these steps and lost nearly 17%.

Now, there’s no doubt that China will feel the repercussions of the global economic slowdown. But there is little doubt in my mind that China will still be the fastest growing major economy next year, as it prepares for the huge Shanghai world exhibition (bigger than the Olympics by at least half). They will have a party leading the world in growth.

I do believe that things are very fragile at best now. Gun and ammo sales are escalating here in the US. The American conservatives are angry, Red is now Fire Red not Cool Blue.
Here is my position on O and the O Administration:

In a couple of months the simple campaign talk will meet head on realities of governing, and President Obama will confront the truth about his foreign policy goals + perhaps some unexpected crises too.

1) America’s financial crisis will severely limit his power, and strain the overseas alliances he says he want to nurture. We know that he popular abroad, but as President he must defend U.S. interests and that will crash head on with those of other nations.
Think about the European Union and China. Obama needs Europe’s backing to stabilize Afghanistan, combat terrorism and impede the spread of nuclear weapons, and he needs firmer ties with China to shore up U.S. interests in volatile South Asia and slow Global Warming, but he risks alienating both powers if his administration erects trade barriers to protect American jobs, an imperative he stressed in the campaign. See what I mean so far Brother.

2) Even with wide international support, it may be impossible for Obama to win the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, prevent Iran from building a nuclear weapon, broker peace between Arabs and Israelis or stabilize African countries beset by civil strife.

Again, the realities are much, much more complex than Obama presented as a candidate.

and on the Week.

sought havens amid sharp falls in global equity markets sendling up 6.9% on Friday, to trade at $796.35 oz, its highest level since October 21, bringing its gains on the week to 7.5%
Nymex January West Texas Intermediate managed to finish 51 cents higher at $49.93 a barrel yesterday, but was still down 12.5 per cent on the week. ICE January Brent rose $1.11 to $49.19 yesterday, but was also down 14.6% on the week.

Popularity: 2% [?]

The Bull Market in Gold

November 1, 2008

How a Works

Every major in modern history has consisted of three main stages:

1. Deflation Stage
2. Investment Demand Stage
3. Mania Stage

During these three stages, prices typically rise in a parabolic upswing, which ultimately results in a sharp, skyrocketing price spike.

So far in today’s , we’ve seen evidence of the first two stages.

Stage 1: Deflation Stage, prices increase because of devaluation. In this a dramatic drop in the value of the US$ against other world currencies has lifted prices over the past 7 years. This devaluation is evident in the 42% drop of the US$ between the summer of 2001 and spring 2008.

Stage 2: Investment Demand Stage, prices continue to grow due to increased investment demand. Attracted by the modest gains of the first stage of the , investors begin to buy as an investment, which further snowballs the price of North, and with the introduction of the popular ETFs, and similar products, investment demand has had incredible strength since the beginning of this , growing in terms of both tonnage and US$ demand.

Stage 3: The Mania Stage, there is no rush like a Rush, and a speculative mania can kindle an inferno of popular greed. During the third stage of a , mania buying will turns ’s parabolic upswing into a price spike that will leave investors rich in its wake.

The Bugs are saying, “Make no mistake. The mania stage is coming.”

The Big Q: Why?

The Big A: Soon the US$ will collapse. It’s imminent, and when it does, the mania buying stage could skyrocket prices to previously unthinkable hights

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Nasdaq Indexes

October 7, 2008

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Nasdaq became a formalized market in 1971. The name used to stand for “ Dealers Automated Quote” system, but now it’s simply “NASDAQ” (as if it’s name like Ralph or Eddie). Nasdaq indexs are similar to other indexes in style and structure. The only difference is that, well they cover companies trade on Nasdaq. The Nasdaq have two (both reported in the financial pages):

:

Most frequently quoted on the news, the covers the more than 5000 companies that trade Nasdaq. The companies encompass variety of industries, but the ’s concentration has primarily been technology, telecom, and . The hit an all-time high of 5048 in March 2000 before the worst in its history occurred. The dropped a whopping 60 percent by 2003 to approximately 2000.

Nasdaq 100 :

The Nasdaq 100 tracks the 100 largest companies in Nasdaq. This is for who want to concentrate on the largest companies, which tend to be especially weighted in technology issues, which means it provides extra representation of technology related companies such as Microsoft, Adobe, and Symantec.

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