Stock Preacher

HK shares rally for 5th month, up 3% on week. Both markets recorded another month of hefty gains in July, the seventh successive monthly gain for Shanghai and the fifth winning month for Hong Kong, fuelled by positive earnings momentum and analyst upgrades. In the absence of a major disappointment in US economic data due next week, or in corporate earnings that will continue to trickle in through August, analysts expect the stock markets to continue their upward trajectory. China’s 4 trillion yuan (US$585.5B ) stimulus package, unprecedented lending growth and stabilising economy have helped to propel a more than doubling of the Shanghai index from last October’s two-year low and fuelled a 43 % surge in Hong Kong shares

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Successful traders always have a plan and follow it.

Traders who fail do not have a specific plan, they enter and exit with out reason or they enter and then do not exit until losses are painful.

In short, the unsuccessful have no exit strategy, or if they do, they do not follow it

Successful traders wait until the trade comes to them, they do not force the trade. Rather they exercise discipline and ignore that temptation that always suggests: “let a loss run just a little more, it will come back.” The fact is that: the loss that runs just a little more often runs a lot more. Read more

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Gold futures dipped on Wednesday as weaker equities prompted funds to consolidate recent profits, but the market drew support from a renewed appetite for risk among investors. Platinum and palladium, boosted this week by strong July car sales, rose on supply worries because of a possible strike at the power utility in top platinum producer South Africa. Renewed interest from investment funds buoyed commodities and equities alike, as investors focused on economic recovery rather than deflation which had decreased inflation-hedge buying in Gold earlier this year. US December gold futures settled down US$3.40 at US$966.30 oz on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Spot Gold dipped to US$966.20 an ounce at 3:30 p.m. EDT from US$966.75 oz late in New York on Tuesday.

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The data is announcing that the institutional side lined money, i.e. Pension managers and Mutual Fund houses have been among the biggest buyers of the DJIA in recent weeks, confirming the growing belief the recession is over. Between July 14 and July 21, when the DJIA gained almost 600 pts to close at 8915, net buying by pension managers and mutual fund managers, the so-called “long-term” or “big” money managers, totaled US$1.9B, according to Thomson Reuters, who analyzed settlement records of the Dow components.The following week, when the DJIA approached 9000, Pensions and Mutual Funds were net sellers but only at US$578M, while hedge funds were net buyers of US$19M in Dow stocks but not after selling US$166M the previous week, the settlement records showed. “There is some momentum lost among pensions and mutual fund investors, but the move is still generally positive,” Shacket said on Tuesday. “These buyers are saying that this market is going to go higher, and not lower any time soon.” The move by these institutional investors into Dow stocks corroborates with economic data and earnings that have been better than expected.

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The Indian Planning Commission is expecting the economic growth rate to marginally move up to 7% in the current fiscal year despite the monsoon casting its shadow on agricultural output, said an official on Tuesday. “I think economic growth during 2009-10 should be between 6.5 and 7% and it will be quite a good outcome,” Planning Commission Deputy Chairman Montek Singh Ahuwalia told reporters here. Noting that the recent pick-up in the industrial sector will have positive implications for growth in the current fiscal, he said, “On the agriculture side, the news is less good than what we hoped.” “There is still deficiency in different parts of the country. It is too early to tell its effect on the country as a whole. But of course individual states can have problems,” Ahluwalia said replying to questions on the impact of the bad monsoon on farm sector growth. Noting that growth projections of various think tanks vary between 6.7 and 7 percent, while some indicating more than 7% economic expansion, he said that this would not be bad under current circumstances. Having grown by over 9% in three consecutive years, economic growth slipped to 6.7% during 2008-09 fiscal year, mainly on account of the impact of the global financial crisis on the country.

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The sharp decline in the US economy is ending and recovery will come about slowly according to a report released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) yesterday.

In an annual report on the world’s largest economy, IMF stuck to its earlier forecasts that the US GDP will contract by 2.6% in 2009 and then rise by 0.8% in 2010.

Due to the large monetary and fiscal stimulus and wide range of measures to restore the financial stability, “the sharp fall in economic output seems to be ending, and confidence in financial stability has strengthened,” the IMF said in its report after the Article IV annual consultation with US officials. However, “financial strains are still elevated and the outlook remains for only a gradual recovery, with risks still tilted to the downside,” it said.

Also on Friday, the US Commerce Department reported that the US economy fell at a more subdued 1.0% pace in the Y 2009 Q-2, a strong signal that the worst recession since the Great Depression has eased, and is coming to a close.

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