Latest Articles

The US “Buy American” proposal will lead to protectionism

February 12, 2009

Dallas Federal Reserve warned against “” provisions in a proposed fiscal law and said it could lead to devastating protectionism. “Let me just be blunt. Protectionism is the crack cocaine of economics. It may provide a high. It’s addictive and it leads to economic death,” Fisher told . are debating rules that will insist that public money is spent on US made products, although the White House has already said it will review any provisions. “We just cannot afford to go down that path and I hope our senators, and , will be very sensible on that front,” said Fisher, who is not a voting member of the Fed’s policy-setting committee this year. “Our job is to maintain price stability while we engender the growth and employment of the … It is a very difficult balancing act, but it can only be done if it is buttressed by sensible fiscal policy,” Fisher said. The Fed has used unorthodox steps to thaw markets and encourage and consumption. It has cut interest rates almost to zero and has pumped hundreds of billions of dollars into the system, more than doubling its balance sheet in the process, to almost US$2T. Fisher said he supported the Fed’s aggressive action but stressed it was crucial that the U.S. have an exit strategy to prevent this massive build-up in liquidity from fueling inflation once recovers.” Right now, the pressures are not on the inflationary side; they’re on the other side. Longer term, we have to be aware of the fact that we could have, as a result of all these initiatives we’ve taken … baked-in inflationary pressures.” We’re very mindful of that and our exit strategy has to work with the fact that we cannot allow inflationary pressures to also take root. This is our job,” Fisher said.

Popularity: unranked [?]

World’s top financial businesses seek help to free up lending in emerging markets

February 11, 2009

The world’s major businesses are pushing for urgent action to help the flow of funding to their subsidiaries in emerging markets and providing more support to such regions, especially Eastern Europe. The Institute for , which represents major institutions, intends to lobby world ahead of meetings in involving the Group of 20 finance officials, and top private , according to , the institute’s managing director. Among other things, the large would like to see the establishment of a new, powerful and global regulation committee, which they see as crucial to improving rules, he said. “We have seen very negative consequences from the measures taken since the fall by governments and central ,” Dallara said by phone from , where he was attending an institute board meeting. “There has been no sense of coordination.” Referring to the mix of capital injections, deposit guarantee plans, bad asset purchases and nationalizations undertaken by governments since last summer to try to shore up hit by the plunge in asset values, write-downs and the collapse in confidence.

Popularity: unranked [?]

Hot topic: US Consumer Credit falls more than expected in December 2008

February 10, 2009

US consumer fell for a 3rd straight month in December, the longest continuous period in 17 yrs, as cut spending amid this steep recession and rising . The said that consumer dropped at an annual rate of 3.1 % in December. The US$6.6B decline was nearly double what expected, following a US $11B drop in November, the biggest monthly decline on record going back to 1943.

Popularity: unranked [?]

In View: The World Economic Forum; AKA Davos

February 9, 2009

The world’s and to meet more often to tackle the current economic problems

The world’s and agreed at the conference to come together more often to share the task of tackling the all the challenges of sinking consumer demand, to climate change.
Last weekend, the conference ended with no consensus on how to solve the world’s economic problems. The are faced with a lack of confidence in western , industry, and , by people around the globe. In fact the it was reported in the Times that the delegates “struggled to agree on a single answer to the crisis.”

It was reported that most executives agreed that more regulation was inevitable, but that the new regulations to be limited to, and designed to give incentives to invest in the future and to stay focused on the consumer and on sustainable energy issues, and that more “collaboration” is necessary going forward.

Noting the theme of the 2008 : “The power of collaborative innovation”, contains much of what is required in theme of the 2009 , i.e. the shaping of the world, post .
, chief executive of Hill, an engineering and construction group, said: “Remember, we’re not always right at this conference. When I was here last year, what I kept thinking was, that if I could help my customers with water, energy and sustainability, I’d do really well profit-wise. . . The world has changed a lot since the last .”

Trillions of US$s will have to be spent to bring confidence back into the system, thus bringing forth the question, where will this money come from?

Popularity: 11% [?]

White House, Senate take aim at Wall St. pay

February 8, 2009

The White House pledged action against irresponsible bonuses for executives at bailed-out companies as a Democratic senator unveiled legislation to limit their compensation to $400,000 a year. Sen. Claire McCaskill (Democrat Missouri) proposed a law last week that would prevent executives from making more money than the US until their companies no longer rely on the US$700B Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP). “I am mad,” the Democrat from Missouri said. At the White House, ’s spokesman said the ’s upcoming plan for stability also would address executive compensation and bonuses. last Thursday said recent bonuses, given the current situation, were “shameful.” various experts have said the US$700B already allocated to TARP will not be enough. A senior Republican senator, Charles Grassley of Iowa, agreed.

US group opposes “Buy American” plan

A top USA group stepped up efforts last week to kill a “Buy American” provision that has angered USAs trading partners, and the White House said it was reviewing its position on the measure. “Some have slammed the USC hamber for opposing ‘Buy American’ provisions, calling our position ‘economic treason,’” Thomas Donohue, of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce said in a statement. “Try ‘economic patriotism’,” he said. “Such provisions would cost American jobs, trigger retaliation from our trading partners, slow economic recovery by delaying shovel-ready infrastructure projects and cede our leadership role as a long-standing proponent of free and fair and global engagement.” The House of Representatives approved the measure last week as part of an US$825B bill to restart the US . In the House bill, the “Buy American” measure would require all public works projects funded by the package to use only US made iron and steel.European steelmakers object, saying that would violate US commitments under the World Organization’s procurement pact. Other critics say that is less than clear cut and could depend on how the measure was implemented. Several at the World Economic in , Switzerland warned that national moves to counter the economic crisis might lead to protectionism.

Popularity: unranked [?]

Why is the US picking a fight with China?

February 7, 2009

overtook Germany to become the world’s third-largest in 2007 after the authorities revised upwards the figures for growth during that year. ’s National Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday that the expanded by 13% in 2007, a sharp increase from the 11.9% growth rate the authorities had previously stated.

Last week following US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner’s public confirmation Secretary Geithner answered questions about currency and , thus placing the administration in the middle of the tension between the and the largest international buyer and holder of the USAs debt: .

The written statement said; “ believes that is manipulating its currency. has pledged as to use aggressively all the diplomatic avenues open to him to seek change in ’s currency practices.”

“Manipulation?” “Aggressively?” This is strong language. Geithner did not do this on his own authority. These are prepared answers. He cited the new , not once but twice.

’s response was fast and direct. ’s commerce ministry said in Beijing that “has never used so-called currency manipulation to gain benefits in its international . Directing unsubstantiated criticism at on the exchange-rate issue will only help U.S. protectionism and will not help towards a real solution to the issue.”

Are we seeing the world’s largest and third largest economies calling each other names in the middle of a global economic and meltdown? Why are we picking a fight with ? The implied question is why are we alluding to one with Japan, whose currency is currently the strongest of the G4 majors? In a world where global finance is mostly in US$s, pounds, euros, and yen, this is engaging in a dangerous sport that could result in a war or a threat to global integration.

A Big Q at is how does the administration believe that launching a fight with is beneficial?

There are those that are saying that the US is now treading in the realm of fiscal policy and national policy. This is not in the realm of the ; the Federal Reserve is not the player here. The Fed is doing all it can to unfreeze the system and restore it to functionality. If stymied or corrupted by conflicting policy in or federal finance, the recession will worsen and the pain will become more severe.

Popularity: unranked [?]

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Paul A. Ebeling, Jr. writes and publishes The Red Roadmaster's Technical Report on the US Major Market Indices, a weekly, highly-regarded financial market letter, read by opinion makers, business leaders and organizations around the world. Ebeling has studied the global financial and stock markets since 1984, following a successful business career that included investment banking, and market and business analysis. He is a specialist in equities/commodities, and an accomplished chart reader who advises technicians with regard to Major Indices Resistance/Support Levels.

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