Vivus Inc. (NASDAQ: VVUS)
VIVUS Inc. (VVUS) is a pharmaceutical company focused on the development and commercialization of therapeutic products. The Company’s product pipeline includes three late-stage clinical products, each addressing specific components of the obesity, diabetes and sexual health markets. One of these investigational products, Qnexa, is in phase III clinical trials for obesity and in phase II clinical trials for diabetes. The Company’s late-stage investigational product pipeline includes Qnexa for treating obesity, for which the two of the phase III studies are in process and one phase III study has been completed; Qnexa for treating diabetes, for which a one-year phase II study has been completed; Avanafil, is being developed for the treatment of erectile dysfunction; for which phase III studies are in process, and Luramist (Testosterone MDTS), which is being developed to treat hypoactive sexual desire disorder in women, for which a phase II study has been completed.
The Company was founded in 1991 and is headquartered in Mountain View, California.
|
Share Statistics (14-Dec-09) |
|
FY 2007 |
FY 2008 |
% Chg |
Q3 2008 |
Q3 2009 |
% Chg |
|
| Symbol |
VVUS |
Revenue, $Mn |
54.70M |
102.2M |
86.8% |
25.48M |
4.43M |
82.6% |
| Current price |
$8.63 |
Gross marg. |
37.5% |
33.8% |
9.9% |
n/a |
39.5% |
n/a |
| 52wk Range: |
$2.72-12.88 |
Oper. margin |
-2.7% |
-13.0% |
381.5% |
n/a |
-476.7% |
n/a |
| Avg Vol (3m): |
4,874,130 |
Net margin |
-4.4% |
-9.7% |
86.2% |
n/a |
-479.5% |
n/a |
| Market Cap. |
605.1M |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Dil. Shares Outst. |
80.6M |
EPS, $ |
-0.04 |
-0.16 |
120.5% |
0.00 |
-0.30 |
100.0% |
Source: Reuters.com, SEC Filings.
Financial Summary
Product revenues from the sale of MUSE in the third quarter of 2009 were $4.3 million, as compared to $4.4 million in the third quarter of 2008. License and other revenue was $115,000 and $21 million in the third quarters of 2009 and 2008, respectively. The third quarter 2008 included the recognition of deferred license revenue from Evamist. Recognition of the deferred revenue from the sale of Evamist ended in May 2009. Total revenue for the third quarter of 2009 was $4.4 million, as compared to $25.5 million for the third quarter of 2008.
Operating expenses for the third quarter of 2009 were $24.8 million as compared to $22.6 million for the same period in 2008. The difference in operating expenses for the third quarter was primarily attributable to spending related to our phase III clinical trials of Avanafil, an orally administered investigational drug candidate for the treatment of erectile dysfunction, partially offset by reduced spending on the obesity trials for Qnexa, which were completed in the third quarter of 2009.
Net loss for the third quarter of 2009 was $21.1 million, or $0.30 per share, as compared to net income of $266,000, or $0.00 per share, for the third quarter of 2008.
Product revenues from the sale of MUSE for the first nine months of 2009 were $9.7 million, as compared to $10.3 million for the same period of 2008. License and other revenue was $31.7 million for the first nine months as compared to $63.1 million for 2008. The first nine months of 2008 included recognition of deferred license revenue from Evamist. Recognition of the deferred revenue from the sale of Evamist ended in May 2009. Total revenue for the first nine months of 2009 was $41.4 million, as compared to $73.4 million for 2008.
Operating expenses for the first nine months of 2009 were $80.6 million as compared to $75.7 million for the same period in 2008. The difference in operating expenses for 2009 was primarily attributable to spending related to our phase III clinical trials of Avanafil, partially offset by reduced spending on the Qnexa program for obesity.
Net loss for the first nine months of 2009 was $41.1 million, or $0.59 per share, as compared to $3.2 million, or $0.05 per share, for 2008.
| Financial Strength (14-Dec-2009) | Company | Industry | Sector | S&P 500 |
| Quick Ratio (MRQ) | 10.35 | 2.73 | 2.58 | 0.92 |
| Current Ratio (MRQ) | 10.47 | 3.20 | 3.08 | 1.09 |
| Long-Term Debt to Equity (MRQ) | 10.11 | 11.86 | 26.15 | 124.46 |
| Total Debt to Equity (MRQ) | 10.11 | 14.92 | 33.69 | 185.43 |
Source: Reuters.com, SEC Filings.
Analyst Consensus
|
Buy |
Outperform |
Hold |
Underperform |
Sell |
No Opinion |
This is the consensus forecast among 9 polled investment analysts. Against the Vivus Inc. company.
|
Analyst Detail |
Buy |
Outperform |
Hold |
Underperform |
Sell |
No Opinion |
|
Latest |
2 |
3 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
4 weeks ago |
3 |
3 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
2 months ago |
3 |
3 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
3 months ago |
3 |
3 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Last year |
1 |
3 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
The 6 analysts offering 12-month price targets for VVUS have a median target of 13.00, with a high estimate of 18.00 and a low estimate of 10.00. The median estimate represents a 52.22% increase from the last price of 8.54.
Source: www.ft.com
|
|
# of Estimates |
Mean |
High |
Low |
1 Year Ago |
|
SALES (in millions) |
|||||
|
Quarter Ending Dec-09 |
9 |
7.25 |
8.30 |
4.00 |
9.42 |
|
Quarter Ending Mar-10 |
3 |
1.27 |
2.00 |
0.70 |
– |
|
Year Ending Dec-09 |
9 |
49.00 |
52.00 |
45.40 |
52.64 |
|
Year Ending Dec-10 |
9 |
27.16 |
73.70 |
8.50 |
40.56 |
|
EARNINGS (per share) |
|||||
|
Quarter Ending Dec-09 |
9 |
-0.26 |
-0.21 |
-0.34 |
-0.25 |
|
Quarter Ending Mar-10 |
3 |
-0.27 |
-0.26 |
-0.30 |
– |
|
Year Ending Dec-09 |
9 |
-0.85 |
-0.80 |
-0.94 |
-0.78 |
|
Year Ending Dec-10 |
9 |
-0.78 |
-0.52 |
-1.06 |
-0.79 |
Source: http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/financialHighlights?symbol=VVUS
Investment Highlights
VVUS in late November announced positive results from REVIVE (TA-301), a phase III pivotal study evaluating the safety and efficacy of Avanafil, an investigational drug candidate for the treatment of erectile dysfunction (ED), in 646 patients. The REVIVE study met all primary endpoints across the three doses studied by demonstrating statistically significant improvement in erectile function as measured by the Sexual Encounter Profile (SEP) and improvements in the International Index of Erectile Function (IIEF) score. The pivotal study, conducted under a Special Protocol Assessment with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), also demonstrated successful intercourse in 30 minutes or less, and a favorable side-effect and safety profile.
Source: http://www.vivus.com/home
Technical Analysis
Source: http://stockcharts.com
VVUS has been relatively stable recently. This is evidenced by the width of its Bollinger Bands,which are tighter than normal. Additionally, VVUS is trading within its Bollinger Bands. This is a normal condition and suggests that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold relative to the recent price action.
The MACD for VVUS currently indicates a strong bullish signal for two reasons. First, the MACD is above the signal line, a 9-day moving average. Second, the MACD is above 0, which implies that the underlying moving averages are trending higher.
Comparative Analysis
|
Company Name |
Ticker |
Price per |
Mrkt. Cap. |
P/E |
P/S |
||
|
Dec-14-2009 |
symbol |
Share, $ |
$ Mn |
2009 |
2010 |
2009 |
2010 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Pfizer Inc. |
PFE |
|
148.36B |
15.27 |
n/a |
3.22 |
n/a |
| GlaxoSmithKline Plc |
GSK |
5 |
108.62B |
13.78 |
n/a |
2.43 |
n/a |
| Eli Lily & Co. | LLY | .45 |
40.54B |
N/a |
n/a |
1.90 |
n/a |
| Drug Manufacturers Median |
|
|
99.17B |
14.52 |
n/a |
2.51 |
n/a |
| Vivus Inc. |
VVUS |
8.63 |
605.1M |
N/a |
n/a |
9.80 |
n/a |
Source: Thomson Financial
Insider Trading Activity
|
NET SHARES PURCHASE ACTIVITY Inside Purchases – Last 6 Months |
||
|
Shares |
Transaction |
|
| Purchases |
n/a |
0 |
| Sales |
533,755 |
15 |
| Net Shares Purchased (Sold) |
(533,755) |
15 |
| Total Insider Shares Held |
782.13K |
n/a |
| % Net Shares Purchased (Sold) |
(40.6%) |
n/a |
|
Net Institutional Purchases — Prior Qtr to Latest Qtr |
|
|
Shares |
|
| Net Shares Purchased (Sold) |
938,548 |
| % Change in Institutional Shares Held |
1.8% |
Source: Yahoo Finance
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