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Technical Trading Overview for Incyte Corp. (INCY)

October 27, 2009

Incyte Corp. (NASDAQ: INCY)

Incyte Corporation (INCY) is a drug discovery and development company focused on developing small molecule drugs to treat serious unmet medical needs. The Company has a pipeline with programs in oncology, inflammation and diabetes. INCY’s pipeline includes compounds in various stages of development in the areas of oncology, inflammation, diabetes and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV).

The Company’s products include INCB18424 (Oral), which is in phase II(a) clinical trials for the treatment of myelofibrosis, polycythemia vera/essential thrombocythemia, rheumatoid arthritis, refractory prostate cancer, and multiple myeloma; INCB18424 (Topical), which is in a phase II(b) clinical trial for the treatment of Psoriasis; and INCB28050, which is in phase I trial for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis.

Its products also include INCB13739, which is in a phase II(b) clinical trial for the treatment of type 2 diabetes; and INCB20817, which is in a phase I trial for the treatment of type 2 diabetes. In addition, the Company’s products include INCB7839 in phase II(a) clinical trial for the treatment of solid tumors, and phase II clinical trial for the treatment of breast cancer; INCB19602 in phase II(a) clinical trial for the treatment of type 2 diabetes; INCB8696 in phase I clinical trial for the treatment of multiple sclerosis; INCB9471 in phase II clinical trial for the treatment of HIV; and INCB15050 in phase I clinical trial for the treatment of HIV.

Further, its Investigational New Drug application cleared products include INCB28060 for the treatment of solid cancers and INCB24360 for the treatment of oncology. The Company operates in the United States, Canada, Germany, Sweden and the United Kingdom. It has a collaborative research and license agreements with Pfizer Inc. and ArtusLabs Inc.

Incyte Corporation was founded in 1991 and is headquartered in Wilmington, Delaware.

Share Statistics

Oct-28-09

2007

2008

%Chg

Q2 2008

Q2 2009

% Chg

Symbol

INCY

Revenue, Mn

34.44M

3.92M

88.6%

0.61M

0.79M

22.8%

Current price

$5.77

Gross margin

100%

100%

0.0

100%

100%

0.0%

52wk Range:

$1.85-$8.18

Oper. margin

-247.6%

-4,064.5%

3,816.9

-6,783.3%

-4087.5%

2695.8

Avg Vol (3m):

2,624,150

Net margin

-252.6%

-4,587.1%

4334.5

-7600.0%

-5000.0%

2600.0

Market Cap.

648.4M

Dil. Shares Outst.

115.8M

EPS, $

-1.03

-1.99

48.2%

-0.54

-0.41

24.1%

Source: https://trading.scottrade.com/quotesresearch/ScottradeResearch.aspx?symbol=INCY ,  http://www.incyte.com/ , http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/incomeStatement?stmtType=INC&perType=INT&symbol=INCY.W ,

Financial Summary

As of June 30, 2009, cash, short-term and long-term marketable securities totaled $147.5 million, compared to $217.8 million as of December 31, 2008. During the six months ended June 30, 2009, INCY used $70.3 million in cash and marketable securities. Cash use guidance of $122 million to $128 million for 2009 remains unchanged.

Total revenues for the quarter ended June 30, 2009, were $0.8 million as compared to $0.6 million for the same period in 2008. Total revenues for the six months ended June 30, 2009, were $1.5 million, as compared to $1.9 million for the same period in 2008.

The net loss for the quarter ended June 30, 2009, was $40.0 million, or $0.41 per share, as compared to $45.6 million, or $0.54 per share, for the same period in 2008. The net loss for the six months ended June 30, 2009, was $80.1 million, or $0.82 per share, as compared to $85.7 million or $1.01 per share, for the same period in 2008. Included in the net loss for the quarter and the six months ended June 30, 2009, were $2.5 million and $5.9 million, respectively, of non-cash expense related to the impact of expensing share-based payments, including employee stock options, as compared to $3.9 million and $7.3 million, respectively, for the same periods in 2008.

Research and development expenses for the quarter ended June 30, 2009, were $29.0 million, as compared to $38.1 million for the same period last year. Research and development expenses for the six months ended June 30, 2009, were $58.6 million, as compared to $71.1 million for the same period last year. The decrease in research and development expenses was due to prioritization of our pipeline to focus on products the Company believes have a greater likelihood of creating near-term value. INCY expects its research and development expenses to vary from quarter to quarter, primarily due to the timing of its clinical development activities. Included in research and development expenses for the quarter and the six months ended June 30, 2009, were $1.8 million and $4.2 million, respectively, of non-cash expense related to the impact of expensing share-based payments, including employee stock options, as compared to $2.9 million and $5.3 million, respectively, for the same periods in 2008.

Selling, general and administrative expenses for the quarter and the six months ended June 30, 2009, were $4.1 million and $8.9 million, respectively, as compared to $4.1 million and $8.5 million, respectively, for the same periods in 2008. Increased selling, general and administrative expenses for the six months ended June 30, 2009, reflected the Company’s initial sales and marketing preparations for the potential commercialization of INCB18424 for myeloproliferative disorders. Also included in selling, general and administrative expenses for the quarter and the six months ended June 30, 2009, were $0.7 million and $1.7 million, respectively, of non-cash expense related to the impact of expensing share-based payments, including employee stock options, as compared to $1.0 million and $2.0 million, respectively, for the same periods in 2008.

Source: http://investor.incyte.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=69764&p=quarterlyearnings

Analyst Consensus

Buy

Outperform

Hold

Underperform

Sell

No Opinion

This is the consensus forecast amongst 10 polled investment analysts. Against the Incyte Corp. company.

Analyst Detail

Buy

Outperform

Hold

Underperform

Sell

No Opinion

Latest

5

2

3

0

0

0

4 weeks ago

5

2

3

0

0

0

2 months ago

5

2

3

0

0

0

3 months ago

5

3

3

0

0

1

Last year

5

6

3

0

0

0

The 7 analysts offering 12-month price targets for INCY have a median target of 10.00, with a high estimate of 12.00 and a low estimate of 6.00. The median estimate represents an 83.49% increase from the last price of 5.45.

Source: Financial Times.com

# of Estimates

Mean

High

Low

1 Year
Ago

SALES (in millions)

Quarter Ending Dec-09

8

2.14

9.00

0.62

2.87

Quarter Ending Mar-10

3

1.15

2.44

0.31

0.16

Year Ending Dec-09

8

4.21

11.00

2.71

11.16

Year Ending Dec-10

8

13.55

39.00

1.25

24.58

Earnings (per share)

Quarter Ending Dec-09

8

-0.35

-0.28

-0.42

-0.50

Quarter Ending Mar-10

3

-0.32

-0.26

-0.38

-0.40

Year Ending Dec-09

10

-1.58

-1.47

-1.66

-1.96

Year Ending Dec-10

10

-1.37

-1.09

-1.66

-1.75

LT Growth Rate (%)

1

25.00

25.00

25.00

25.00

Source: http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/estimates?symbol=INCY.W

Investment Highlights

INCY last month announced positive clinical trial results for a topical formulation of its lead janus kinase (JAK) inhibitor, INCB18424, in psoriasis. These results were obtained from a multi-center three-month phase II(b) trial comparing three once-daily doses of topical INCB18424 to vehicle in 200 patients with mild-to-moderate psoriasis. In the trial patients treated with INCB18424 had a statistically significant improvement over placebo in the reduction in total lesion score (erythema + scaling + thickness), which was the primary efficacy endpoint of the trial. Statistical significance was also achieved for the secondary endpoints: the Physician Global Assessment score and the Psoriasis Area and Severity Index score. INCB18424 was well tolerated at all doses and no clinically significant effects were noted in hematology or other laboratory parameters.

INCY earlier this year announced that it has reached agreement with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) regarding a Special Protocol Assessment (SPA) on the design of a pivotal phase III trial for its lead JAK1/JAK2 Inhibitor, INCB18424, in patients with primary myelofibrosis (PMF), post-polycythemia vera myelofibrosis (PPV-MF) or post-essential thrombocythemia myelofibrosis (PET-MF). The SPA provides agreement that the study design and planned analysis of the phase III trial adequately address objectives in support of a regulatory submission. COMFORT-I (COntrolled MyeloFibrosis Study with ORal JAK Inhibitor Treatment), is a double-blind, placebo-controlled phase III trial comparing the efficacy and safety of INCB18424 to placebo in approximately 240 patients with PMF, PPV-MF or PET-MF. COMFORT-I is expected to begin in August. COMFORT-II, a second phase III trial being conducted in Europe, began patient enrollment in July.

INCY late last month announced the pricing of its underwritten public offering of 18 million shares of its common stock at a price to the public of $6.75 per share. The offer closed on September 30, 2009. INCY also granted the underwriters a 30-day option to purchase an additional 2.7 million shares of common stock. All of the shares are being offered by the Company. The Company intends to use the net proceeds of this offering for general corporate purposes, including research and development activities. Goldman, Sachs & Co. is acting as sole book-running manager of this offering. Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated and J.P. Morgan Securities Inc. are acting as co-managers.

Source: Scottrade.com, Reuters.com, http://www.incyte.com/index.html

Technical Analysis

incy

Source: www.stockcharts.com

Moving Average Price Compare

INCY is trading below its 50-day moving average. However, this moving average is trending higher which suggests that there has been buying interest in this stock.

Bollinger Bands

INCY is trading near its lower Bollinger Band. This suggests that the stock price is low relative to its recent price action.

MACD

The MACD for INCY currently indicates a strong bearish signal for two reasons. First, the MACD is below the signal line, a 9-day moving average. Second, the MACD is below the critical level of 0, which implies that the underlying moving averages are trending lower.

Comparative Analysis

Company Name

Ticker

Price per

Mrkt. Cap.

P/E

P/S

Oct-28-2009

symbol

Share, $

$ Mn

2009

2010

2009

2010

Gilead Sciences Inc.

GILD

43.11

39.34B

18.29

N/M

N/A

N/M

Biogen Idec Inc.

BIIB

44.55

12.96B

14.99

N/M

N/A

N/M

Genzyme Corp.

GENZ

51.94

14.18B

30.05

N/M

N/A

N/M

Amgen Inc.

AMGN

54.41

55.62B

11.94

N/M

N/A

N/M

Median

48.46

30.53B

18.82

Incyte Corp.

INCY

5.77

648.4M

N/A

N/M

154.7

N/M

Source: Reuter.com, Nasdaq.com

Insider Trading Activity

Net Share Purchase Activity

Insider Purchases – Last 6 Months

Shares

Trans

Purchases

N/A

0

Sales

N/A

0

Net Shares Purchased (Sold)

N/A

0

Total Insider Shares Held

15.70M

N/A

% Net Shares Purchased (Sold)

0.0%

N/A

Net Institutional Purchases – Prior Qtr to Latest Qtr

Shares

Net Shares Purchased (Sold)

(19,439,400)

% Change in Institutional Shares Held

(43.5%)

Data provided by Thomson Financial

Report Disclaimer

DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS REPORT. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority.  We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice.

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We encourage you to invest carefully and read investment information available at the websites of the SEC at http://www.sec.gov and FINRA at http://www.finra.org.

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